MODELING THE IMPACT OF THE TRANSPORT PROVISION OPTION ON PROJECT RISKS
AbstractThe subject of the research is the formalization of the influence of the option of transport provision of the project on its risks. The aim of the study is to improve the efficiency of project management processes by identifying and formalizing the risks associated with the transportation of the project. Tasks of the study: to characterize the impact of transportation on the project; to describe formally the dependence of expenses on options for transport provision of projects; to develop a formation scheme and a method for assessing the risks of excess costs and loss of time for the project under the influence of the transport option. The following methods are used: system analysis, functional analysis. Results: project risks are formed under the influence of many factors, and transport provision is one of the components of this set. The set of characteristics of the project, which are influenced by transport provision - cost, risks, duration, quality, and result, has been established and characterized. At the same time, the alternatives and variability of transport provision form a corresponding impact on the project risks. In this study, under the option of transportation, a combination of a specific type and type of vehicle, its characteristics (for example, carrying capacity) and conditions of use in the project (purchase, lease or service from project suppliers) are accepted. The transport provision of the project is considered for three levels: separate work, time period, and project as a whole. For each of the levels, the following is established: the volume of necessary transport services; the number of vehicles required; costs for each option of transportation. Mathematical expressions are obtained for the magnitude of the potential risks of the project in the form of time losses and additional costs associated with the options for transport provision. Additional costs are determined by the loss of time, the characteristics of the vehicle, the cost structure depending on the conditions for using the vehicles. Conclusions: The formalizations obtained make it possible to quantify the impact of transport options on project risks. These results are the basis for the further development of a model for choosing the optimal option for transport provision for the project, implying a set of specific vehicles, terms and conditions of their use in the project.
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